Silver price analysis

SILVER PRICE ANALYSIS: XAG/USD TRADES WITH MODEST LOSSES BELOW $23.00, REMAINS VULNERABLE

26 February 2024, 10:45

• Silver struggles to capitalize on Friday’s goodish bounce from the vicinity of the mid-$22.00s.
• Neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before placing directional bets.
• A sustained strength beyond the 200-day SMA will shift the bias in favour of bullish traders.

Silver (XAG/USD) meets with a fresh supply on the first day of a new week and erodes a major part of Friday's recovery gains from over a one-week low. The white metal maintains its offered tone around the $22.85-$22.80 zone through the first half of the European session and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent downfall witnessed over the past week or so.

From a technical perspective, the recent failure to find acceptance above the very important and significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent decline validates the near-term negative outlook for the XAG/USD. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to confirm a bearish bias, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move.

In the meantime, Friday's swing low, around mid-$22.00s, might continue to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $22.30 horizontal support. The next relevant support is pegged near the $21.90-$21.85 zone, or the two-month low touched in January. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and has the potential to drag the XAG/USD towards testing the $21.40-$21.35 support area.

On the flip side, the $23.00 round figure now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the 200-day SMA, currently near the $23.30 zone. This is followed by the monthly peak, around mid-$23.00. A sustained strength beyond the latter will negate the negative outlook and allow the XAG/USD to aim back to reclaim the $24.00 round figure.

The momentum could extend further towards the $24.50-$24.60 region, above which the white metal could target the $25.00 psychological mark.

Silver daily chart

 

USD/CAD Analysis

USD/CAD: THE INSTRUMENT CONTINUES THE “BULLISH” MOMENTUM FORMED LAST FRIDAY 26 February 2024, 09:52 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 1.3550 Take Profit 1.3650 Stop Loss 1.3500 Key Levels 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700 Alternative scenario Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.3500 Take Profit 1.3400 Stop Loss 1.3550 Key Levels 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700 Current trend During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair moderately develops the “bullish” momentum formed on Friday and tests the level of 1.3500 for a breakout, while trading participants expect the emergence of new drivers. Today, investors will focus on statistics from the real estate market: in December, sales of new homes increased by 8.0% to 0.664M, and January forecasts suggest a more muted growth to 0.680M. On Tuesday, data on US consumer confidence for February and durable goods orders: according to preliminary estimates, the figure excluding transport in January will be adjusted from 0.5% to 0.2%. On Wednesday, Q4 personal consumption expenditures statistics will be published, thanks to which US Federal Reserve officials will be able to assess the pace of decline in inflation pressure within the country: previously, the index increased by 1.7% QoQ. On Thursday, analysts will estimate the dynamics of Canada’s Q4 gross domestic product (GDP): forecasts suggest growth of the national economy by 0.8% YoY after a decline of 1.1% earlier, and by the end of December, as before, the figure will increase by about 0.2%. Support and resistance On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moving flat: the price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current market activity level. The MACD indicator is trying to reverse upwards and generate a buy signal (the histogram tends to be above the signal line). Stochastic shows more active “bullish” dynamics but is quickly approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument may become overbought soon. Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700. Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3350. Trading tips Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 1.3550 with the target at 1.3650. Stop loss – 1.3500. Implementation time: 2–3 days. Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 1.3550 and a breakdown of 1.3500 with the target at 1.3400. Stop loss – 1.3550.

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